UN Warns of Powerful El Niño, Urges Governments to Prepare for Global Food and Climate Risks
The United Nations has urged governments and international financial institutions to prepare urgently for an exceptionally strong El Niño event, warning that extreme heat, droughts and flooding could intensify humanitarian needs across several regions.
The warning was issued on October 21, 2026, by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Celeste Saulo and UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher in Geneva. Both officials stressed that advance preparation could prevent climate-related hazards from developing into major humanitarian emergencies.
The warning comes as countries are already dealing with conflict, displacement, economic pressures and funding shortages in humanitarian operations.
How Strong Could the 2026–27 El Niño Become?
The WMO’s latest seasonal outlook indicates that sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific could rise to around 3.8°C above average during November 2026 to January 2027.
If realised, this would be an exceptionally high reading compared with historical El Niño events. The WMO has warned that the current event could exceed the monitoring ranges used over the past four decades.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern involving unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It changes atmospheric circulation and can alter rainfall and temperature patterns around the world.
The phenomenon does not produce identical weather everywhere. Some regions experience drought and heat, while others face heavier rainfall and increased flooding risk.
The WMO expects the event to peak towards the end of 2026, with effects potentially continuing well into 2027.
What Is El Niño and Why Does It Matter?
El Niño is part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate cycle, which also includes its cooler counterpart, La Niña, and neutral conditions.
It typically recurs every two to seven years, with individual events often lasting around nine to 12 months.
Its significance lies in its ability to disrupt normal seasonal weather patterns. Depending on location, the effects can include:
- Higher temperatures and more frequent heat stress.
- Reduced rainfall and drought in vulnerable areas.
- Heavy rain and flooding in other regions.
- Pressure on drinking-water supplies and agriculture.
- Increased risks to food security, public health and livelihoods.
The impacts of El Niño can be more severe when they coincide with existing poverty, conflict, displacement or weak infrastructure. Climate-related hazards can also compound the effects of long-term global warming.
Which Regions Face the Biggest Risks?
The WMO has identified different risks across several parts of the world. These are seasonal outlooks, not predictions of individual weather disasters.
| Region | Main risks highlighted by the WMO |
|---|---|
| East Africa | Wetter-than-normal conditions in parts of the region during the October–December rainy season, raising concerns about heavy rain and flooding |
| Southern Africa | Increased risk of drier conditions affecting crops, water supplies and livelihoods |
| Southeast Asia | Higher temperatures and rainfall deficits, with pressure on agriculture and water resources |
| Central America | Increased drought risk in parts of the region |
| Parts of South America | Increased rainfall and flooding risks in some areas |
| Parts of North America and the Caribbean | Above-normal precipitation in some locations, alongside drought risks in other areas |
These differences show why governments need region-specific forecasts rather than assuming that El Niño will produce the same conditions everywhere.
National meteorological agencies and local authorities will be essential in translating global outlooks into practical warnings and preparations.
UN Warns Humanitarian Needs Could Rise Sharply
UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher warned that the combined effects of extreme heat, drought and flooding could push millions of people into greater hardship.
He said that as many as 50 million people could face increased hunger as El Niño compounds existing crises. This is a warning about potential additional humanitarian needs, not a confirmed count of people already experiencing new hunger because of the event.
The risk is particularly serious for communities already affected by conflict, displacement, high food prices or limited access to water, healthcare and sanitation.
When harvests fail or floods destroy homes and infrastructure, households can lose income and face higher food costs. These pressures may also increase displacement and put additional strain on governments and aid organisations.
The UN has stressed that preparation must begin before the worst effects materialise.
UN Releases $50 Million for 11 Vulnerable Countries
Fletcher said he had released $50 million to support 11 countries considered to be on the front line of the expected climate impacts.
Countries named in reporting on the announcement include Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan.
The funding is intended to support anticipatory action and help vulnerable communities prepare for foreseeable risks. Such measures can include positioning essential supplies, protecting livelihoods and strengthening early-response arrangements before conditions deteriorate.
The allocation is only one part of the broader response being sought. UN officials are also calling on governments, development banks and international financial institutions to mobilise additional funding before emergencies become more severe.
Why Early Preparation Matters
The UN’s approach centres on anticipatory action: using climate forecasts and early-warning information to take steps before a disaster causes widespread damage.
For example, authorities facing flood risks may prepare evacuation arrangements, protect essential infrastructure and position emergency supplies. In drought-prone areas, preparation could include supporting farmers, safeguarding livestock and improving access to water.
Early action can reduce the need for more expensive emergency responses later. However, it depends on reliable forecasts, coordination among institutions, sufficient funding and the ability to reach vulnerable communities.
The WMO has emphasised that extreme weather does not automatically have to become a humanitarian disaster. Forecasts can provide an opportunity to reduce losses, but that opportunity narrows as the event approaches.
Could El Niño Affect Food Prices and the Global Economy?
Potential disruption to agriculture and water supplies could have consequences beyond the countries experiencing the most severe weather.
Drought can reduce crop yields and affect livestock, while flooding can damage farmland, roads, storage facilities and supply chains. If production falls in important agricultural regions, food prices may come under pressure.
The economic consequences could also extend to energy demand, transport, insurance and public spending on disaster response. The extent of these effects will depend on the weather that develops, the crops and locations affected, and how governments and markets respond.
The UN has warned that the consequences may include economic shocks, displacement and increased migration. These are potential outcomes rather than inevitable results of every El Niño event.
What Should Pakistan Watch For?
For Pakistan, the latest global warning is a reason to follow national and regional seasonal forecasts closely, rather than assume a specific weather outcome.
El Niño influences global atmospheric circulation, but its local effects vary. The global outlook alone does not establish whether Pakistan will experience a particular rainfall deficit, flood or temperature anomaly.
Relevant preparations include monitoring updates from the Pakistan Meteorological Department, assessing water availability, strengthening disaster preparedness and protecting agricultural livelihoods where local forecasts indicate elevated risks.
Farmers and businesses should rely on updated regional guidance before making decisions about planting, irrigation, water storage or other weather-sensitive activities.
What Happens Next?
The coming months will be important as forecasters monitor the strength of El Niño and refine their expectations for regional temperature and rainfall patterns.
The UN is calling for governments and development partners to use the remaining preparation window to protect vulnerable populations, strengthen early-warning systems and make funding available before humanitarian needs escalate.
The central message is that the world cannot stop El Niño itself, but timely planning and coordinated action can reduce its human and economic consequences.
Editorial note: The WMO’s temperature figures and regional outlooks are forecasts, not confirmed future conditions. Humanitarian estimates describe potential additional risks. Readers should consult updated national meteorological advisories for local weather guidance.