Pakistan Faces Risk of Winter Gas Shortages as LNG Supplies Remain Uncertain
Pakistan is preparing for potential gas shortages during the winter of 2026–27 as seasonal demand rises and uncertainty over liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries creates additional pressure on the country’s energy supply system.
The Petroleum Division has proposed a winter gas management plan covering November 2026 to February 2027. Under the proposed arrangement, household consumers would receive priority, while supplies to some industrial users, CNG stations, fertiliser plants and captive power plants could be reduced if available gas falls short of demand.
The situation presents a difficult challenge for policymakers: securing enough gas to meet winter requirements while controlling the financial cost of importing LNG at potentially high international prices.
Why Pakistan Could Face Gas Shortages This Winter
Gas consumption in Pakistan typically increases during winter as households use more fuel for cooking and water heating. In colder parts of the country, demand can rise sharply as temperatures fall.
According to a Petroleum Division plan reported by Business Recorder on October 13, demand on the Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) network is projected to rise from approximately 550 million cubic feet per day (MMcfd) to 1,100 MMcfd.
On the Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC) network, demand is expected to increase from around 300 MMcfd to 500 MMcfd.
| Gas network | Reported demand before winter | Projected winter demand |
|---|---|---|
| SNGPL | 550 MMcfd | 1,100 MMcfd |
| SSGC | 300 MMcfd | 500 MMcfd |
These figures are projections cited in the proposed winter plan, rather than confirmed measurements of future consumption.
The increase in seasonal demand could widen the gap between available supplies and the amount of gas required by households, businesses and power producers.
LNG Supply Disruptions Add to the Pressure
Pakistan relies on imported LNG to supplement its domestic natural gas production. Interruptions to imported supplies can therefore affect the availability of gas across the national energy system.
Recent reporting has highlighted uncertainty surrounding LNG shipments from Qatar, including the continuation of a force majeure situation affecting contracted deliveries. Authorities have also faced challenges securing replacement cargoes from the international spot market at affordable prices.
Spot-market purchases can help address immediate shortages, but they expose Pakistan to prevailing international prices and the cost of transporting LNG.
This creates two connected risks: insufficient gas supplies if cargoes do not arrive, and higher financial costs if the government must purchase replacement supplies at elevated prices.
Government Considers Additional LNG Cargoes
The Petroleum Division has proposed arrangements to secure additional LNG supplies before and during the winter demand peak.
According to the reported plan, Pakistan would explore special arrangements with QatarEnergy and alternative procurement options involving Pakistan LNG Limited, Pakistan State Oil and other suppliers.
The proposals include efforts to arrange additional cargoes for the domestic and power sectors, with contingency measures prepared in case contracted deliveries are delayed or spot-market purchases cannot be secured.
However, the proposed procurement arrangements should not be interpreted as confirmation that every required LNG cargo has been purchased or that all deliveries are guaranteed.
The availability of supplies will depend on the outcome of negotiations, international market conditions and the operational status of LNG shipments.
Which Consumers Could Face Gas Load-Shedding?
The proposed winter plan places household consumers at the top of the supply priority list. If a severe shortage develops, other categories of consumers could face restrictions.
| Consumer category | Potential impact under the proposed plan |
|---|---|
| Domestic households | Priority for available supplies, particularly during cooking hours |
| CNG stations | Supplies could be curtailed during periods of severe shortage |
| Industrial consumers | Gas allocation may be reduced depending on availability |
| Captive power plants | Could face restrictions to redirect gas to higher-priority users |
| Fertiliser plants | Supplies may be affected, creating risks for urea production |
| Electricity generation | Gas availability could be constrained if LNG supplies remain insufficient |
The actual impact will depend on available domestic gas, LNG arrivals and the final load-management decisions taken by the authorities.
For businesses that rely on gas for manufacturing or electricity generation, supply interruptions could increase operating costs and disrupt production schedules.
Households May Receive Priority During Cooking Hours
The proposed plan recommends prioritising domestic gas supplies, with a focus on the hours when households need gas for cooking.
The Petroleum Division has proposed maintaining supplies to households from 5pm to 10pm, with sufficient pressure during cooking hours where possible.
This proposed schedule should not be treated as a confirmed nationwide timetable. Actual gas pressure and availability can vary by location, network conditions and the final measures implemented by the relevant gas utility.
Consumers should follow announcements from SNGPL or SSGC for information about their service areas.
Why Buying More LNG Could Be Expensive
Pakistan’s authorities must balance energy security against the financial implications of importing additional LNG.
When contracted cargoes are unavailable, spot-market purchases may be considerably more expensive. Higher procurement costs can place pressure on foreign exchange reserves and increase the financial burden on the energy sector.
The government must also consider how imported gas is allocated among households, electricity generation and industry. Using expensive LNG for one category of consumers can affect the overall cost of energy supplies and potentially create additional financial pressures elsewhere in the system.
This means the winter gas challenge is not simply about purchasing more fuel. It also involves deciding how limited supplies should be distributed and how the resulting costs should be managed.
Could Gas Shortages Affect Fertiliser Production?
Fertiliser manufacturing is another area of concern because gas is an important input for producing urea.
The reported winter plan considers the possibility that gas restrictions could affect selected fertiliser plants. According to the Petroleum Division summary reported by Business Recorder, the closure of three plants could create a potential urea supply shortfall of approximately 109,000 tonnes per month.
That figure represents a reported scenario, not a confirmed reduction in production.
If fertiliser output is disrupted, authorities may need to weigh the cost of maintaining gas supplies to domestic plants against importing finished fertiliser. Any sustained reduction in supply could have implications for fertiliser availability and agricultural input costs.
No final decision to close the plants should be inferred from the proposed contingency measures.
What Consumers and Businesses Should Expect
Pakistan’s winter gas outlook will depend heavily on whether additional LNG cargoes can be secured and whether domestic production remains stable.
Households may experience changes in gas pressure or availability if supply becomes insufficient, while businesses could face restrictions under the final load-management arrangements.
Consumers can take practical steps to prepare:
- Follow official announcements from their gas utility.
- Use gas efficiently, particularly during peak-demand periods.
- Avoid relying on unconfirmed social media claims about fixed load-shedding schedules.
- Businesses dependent on gas should prepare contingency plans for possible supply interruptions.
Any alternative heating or cooking equipment should be used according to its safety instructions and with adequate ventilation where required.
What Happens Next?
The government’s next steps include finalising the winter gas allocation plan, pursuing additional LNG supplies and deciding how available gas should be distributed if shortages emerge.
The key factors to watch are the arrival of contracted LNG cargoes, the cost and availability of spot-market supplies, domestic gas production and the final government decision on sectoral priorities.
Pakistan’s proposed winter plan aims to protect household consumers, but it also highlights the difficulty of balancing energy security, industrial activity and the cost of imported fuel.
Until the procurement situation and final policy decisions become clearer, the possibility of winter gas shortages remains a risk rather than a certainty.
Editorial note: The reported winter gas management plan was proposed for November 2026 to February 2027. Verify the latest government decision, LNG procurement status and local utility announcements before publication.