Pakistan’s Power Purchase Price Could Reach Rs. 27.31 Per Unit in 2027

Pakistan’s projected power purchase price could reach Rs. 27.309 per unit in 2027 under the base-case scenario submitted by the Central Power Purchasing Agency-Guarantee (CPPA-G), as the country prepares to revise its electricity tariff framework from January 1, 2027.

The projection estimates a total electricity procurement cost of approximately Rs. 3.55 trillion for the calendar year 2027. However, the final outcome will depend on regulatory review, fuel prices, electricity demand, exchange-rate movements, and other cost factors.

The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has scheduled a public hearing for November 3, 2026, to examine the projections. The process forms part of the proposed rebasing of consumer-end electricity tariffs for ex-WAPDA distribution companies.

Importantly, the projected power purchase price is not the same as the final retail tariff shown on consumers’ electricity bills. Taxes, duties, subsidies, distribution costs, and other applicable adjustments can affect the amount consumers ultimately pay.

What Is Pakistan’s Projected Power Purchase Price for 2027?

Under CPPA-G’s base-case scenario, the average power purchase price is projected at Rs. 27.309 per kilowatt-hour, commonly referred to as a unit of electricity.

The forecast covers electricity purchased for distribution companies during calendar year 2027. CPPA-G estimates that approximately 130,081 gigawatt-hours of electricity will be sold to distribution companies over the period.

The total projected procurement cost under this scenario stands at approximately Rs. 3.552 trillion.

These figures are forecasts submitted for regulatory consideration. They should not be treated as a final approved electricity tariff.

Power Purchase Price Could Range From Rs. 25.88 to Rs. 29.26

CPPA-G has presented multiple scenarios to account for different possible developments in electricity demand, fuel expenses, and exchange rates.

Under the ideal-case scenario, the projected purchase price is Rs. 25.883 per unit. Under the second worst-case scenario, it rises to Rs. 29.255 per unit.

The range demonstrates how changes in underlying assumptions can influence the cost of supplying electricity.

The worst-case scenarios assume a weaker rupee, at Rs. 290 per US dollar, compared with Rs. 279 in the base case. They also include higher projected fuel and capacity costs.

The demand-sensitivity scenario assumes annual electricity demand growth of only 0.70%, reducing projected sales to 127,937 GWh. Under this scenario, the estimated purchase price rises to Rs. 27.568 per unit.

These scenarios illustrate possible outcomes rather than confirmed future prices.

Capacity Charges Account for the Largest Cost Component

Capacity charges represent the largest component of the projected power purchase price in the base-case estimate.

These charges are associated with payments for power generation capacity made available to the electricity system under applicable contractual arrangements. They are distinct from the fuel expenses incurred when electricity is generated.

Under CPPA-G’s base-case projection, the major cost components are as follows:

The figures are rounded, so individual amounts may not add up exactly to the reported total.

Capacity charges alone account for more than half of the projected power purchase price. This highlights why electricity costs depend not only on the price of fuel but also on the financial arrangements and capacity payments within the power sector.

How Could Fuel Prices and the Rupee Affect Electricity Costs?

Fuel expenses remain an important source of uncertainty in the 2027 projections.

If the cost of imported fuels rises, the rupee weakens, or electricity generation costs increase, the purchase price could move towards the higher scenarios. Conversely, more favourable fuel prices and other assumptions could reduce projected procurement costs.

Exchange-rate movements are particularly relevant because some energy-sector costs are linked to foreign currencies.

In the worst-case scenarios, CPPA-G assumes an exchange rate of Rs. 290 per US dollar. The weaker exchange rate contributes to the higher projected purchase price alongside increased fuel and capacity costs.

The final price will depend on how these variables evolve and how the regulator evaluates the submitted assumptions.

Will Electricity Bills Increase From January 2027?

Not necessarily by the amount suggested by the projected power purchase price.

The Rs. 27.309 figure represents the forecast average cost of purchasing electricity under the base-case scenario. It is not a direct announcement that households and businesses will pay Rs. 27.309 per unit on their bills.

Consumer-end tariffs incorporate additional elements, which may include applicable distribution costs, taxes, duties, subsidies, and other adjustments. The impact on an individual consumer will also depend on the applicable tariff category and consumption.

The proposed tariff rebasing is scheduled to take effect from January 1, 2027, but the final tariff framework will depend on NEPRA’s regulatory proceedings and the relevant government decisions.

Consumers should therefore wait for official tariff notifications before assuming that their electricity bills will rise or fall by a specific amount.

NEPRA Hearing Scheduled for November 3

NEPRA has scheduled a public hearing on CPPA-G’s projected power purchase price report for November 3, 2026, at NEPRA Tower in Islamabad, with participation also available online.

The hearing will allow interested and affected parties to present comments and objections concerning the projections.

Regulatory scrutiny is important because the forecast relies on assumptions about demand growth, the exchange rate, fuel costs, capacity payments, and other expenses.

The review may help determine whether the assumptions are appropriate for setting the reference costs used in the revised consumer-end electricity tariff framework.

The hearing itself does not mean that the proposed purchase price has already been approved.

What Does This Mean for Pakistan’s Power Sector?

The projected purchase price highlights the continuing financial challenges facing Pakistan’s electricity system.

Capacity payments form a substantial portion of the forecast, while fuel expenses and currency movements remain important variables. These costs must be considered alongside electricity demand, distribution losses, bill recovery, and the wider financial health of the sector.

For policymakers, the challenge is to maintain a financially sustainable electricity system while limiting the burden on consumers and businesses.

The final outcome of the 2027 tariff rebasing will be important for households planning their budgets and businesses estimating their future operating costs.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s power purchase price is projected to reach Rs. 27.309 per unit in 2027 under CPPA-G’s base-case scenario, with total procurement costs estimated at approximately Rs. 3.55 trillion.

The alternative scenarios place the projected price between Rs. 25.883 and Rs. 29.255 per unit, depending on the assumptions used.

With NEPRA’s hearing scheduled for November 3, the figures remain subject to regulatory review. The final consumer-end electricity tariff may differ from the projected purchase price because it includes other costs, adjustments, and applicable policy decisions.

The key development to watch is NEPRA’s review and the eventual determination of the tariff framework intended to take effect from January 1, 2027.

Editorial note: All projected prices and costs in this report are estimates submitted by CPPA-G for regulatory consideration. They should not be interpreted as final approved tariffs or confirmed changes to household electricity bills.