UN Warns El Niño Could Become One of the Strongest Since 1950

The United Nations weather agency has warned that the current El Niño could become one of the strongest since at least 1950, increasing the likelihood of unusual temperatures and rainfall worldwide.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects the event to peak around December, with a near-100% probability that it will persist through February 2027.

Pacific Ocean Warming Intensifies

The October–December forecast projects a seasonal temperature anomaly of approximately 3.7°C above normal in the Niño 3.4 monitoring region of the Pacific.

This remains a forecast, rather than a confirmed record. WMO expects widespread above-average temperatures alongside rainfall shifts that could increase drought and flood risks.

What Is El Niño?

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern marked by warmer surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It typically develops every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months.

Its effects vary according to its strength, duration and interaction with other climate patterns. Different regions can experience very different outcomes during the same event.

Early Forecasts Support Preparedness

Seasonal warnings help authorities prepare for potential pressures on agriculture, water supplies, health and energy.

WMO stresses that regional outlooks describe probabilities. National and local forecasts remain essential for understanding conditions in individual communities.